In response to recent concerns regarding the Central Bank of Barbados’ economic report and analysis, the institution has reiterated its commitment to accuracy, transparency, and public trust—principles that have been foundational throughout its 50-plus-year history. The Central Bank emphasizes the vital importance of precise, transparent, and objective economic reporting in maintaining public confidence and takes great care to ensure that the information it publishes is reliable and reflective of current economic realities.
The economic data, including statistics on economic growth, nominal GDP, inflation, and unemployment, are produced following best practices. Much of this data is generated by the Barbados Statistical Service (BSS), but the Central Bank rigorously scrutinizes these submissions to ensure their thoroughness and reliability. The reports produced by the Bank are grounded in robust statistical frameworks, supported by rigorous analysis, and are frequently reviewed by international partners, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to ensure their accuracy.
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For example, the 2023 GDP estimates produced by the BSS and reported by the Central Bank have been reviewed and validated by an IMF technical assistance mission. This external review provides additional assurance of the validity of the data, which the Bank confidently supports.
Specific concerns were raised about estimates of tourism earnings and their contribution to GDP. The Central Bank clarified that the performance of tourism earnings in the first half of 2024 is comparable to that of the first half of 2007, a period when Barbados hosted a major international cricket event. In both instances, there was a significant increase in the ratio of tourism earnings to gross domestic product—rising from 15.9% in 2023 to 20.9% in 2024. This trend is consistent with the increase observed from 22.7% to 27.5% between 2006 and 2007.
Tourism estimates for the first half of 2024 are supported by several key indicators:
- A 17.9% increase in long-stay arrivals over the first half of 2023, according to the Barbados Statistical Service.
- An average rise in hotel room rates of 10%, with the second quarter showing a particularly strong increase of 13.3% over the same period in 2023, as reported by the Smith Travel Report.
- A 17.9% increase in cruise arrivals, with a significant rebound in cruise calls during the second quarter of 2024, according to the Barbados Statistical Service.
- A general increase in food prices of 5.3%, indicating higher spending by visitors on food, contributing to the overall rise in tourism spending.
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These data points collectively support the Central Bank’s estimate of a 4.5% economic growth rate for the first half of 2024. This growth reflects a strong recovery in the tourism sector following the COVID-19 pandemic, which has, in turn, driven economic expansion across other sectors.
The Central Bank also acknowledges concerns from some Barbadians regarding a perceived disconnect between the economic reports and their lived experiences. It is important to understand that while the economy may be growing, it can take time for the benefits of this growth to be felt by all members of society—a phenomenon observed globally, including in advanced economies like the United States. This underscores the Bank’s consistent emphasis on the need for increased investments to achieve sustainable and inclusive economic growth that will improve the lives and livelihoods of all Barbadians.
The Central Bank welcomes public discourse on its economic reviews and remains committed to engaging with stakeholders to address any genuine concerns. If discrepancies exist between the reported data and independent analyses, the institution encourages dialogue to assess and verify these figures. The primary objective remains to provide the most accurate and comprehensive picture of Barbados’ economic performance, even while acknowledging the inherent challenges in producing projections within a dynamic and uncertain global environment.
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